On April 23, 2025, India announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, a landmark 1960 agreement brokered by the World Bank to manage the Indus River system’s water distribution. This decision, prompted by a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, marks a significant escalation in India-Pakistan relations, with profound consequences for Pakistan’s water security.
The IWT allocates the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan, with provisions for limited Indian use of the latter for hydroelectric projects. Pakistan, heavily dependent on the Indus system, receives approximately 80% of its 154.3 million acre-feet annual flow, critical for irrigating 80% of its farmland and sustaining 68% of its rural population. Agriculture accounts for 23% of Pakistan’s GDP, making the rivers a lifeline for food security and economic stability.
India’s suspension, declared until Pakistan “credibly abjures cross-border terrorism,” threatens this delicate balance. Pakistan’s limited water storage—only 14.4 million acre-feet at dams like Mangla and Tarbela—leaves it vulnerable to disruptions. Reduced water flow could slash crop yields, exacerbate food shortages, and deepen economic woes in a country already grappling with financial challenges. Urban areas reliant on the Indus for drinking water and hydropower may also face unrest.
India retains rights under the treaty to develop irrigation on 13.4 lakh acres in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh (currently using 6.42 lakh acres) and store 3.6 million acre-feet of western river water, though such infrastructure is minimal. Run-of-the-river dams allow India to temporarily control flows, a strategic leverage point in this crisis.
Tensions have simmered over India’s hydroelectric projects, like the Kishenganga and Ratle plants, which Pakistan claims violate the treaty. The suspension follows India’s earlier calls to renegotiate the IWT, citing demographic changes, environmental concerns, and terrorism. Experts warn that without diplomatic resolution, Pakistan’s agricultural heartland and rural communities face severe risks, potentially destabilizing the region further. Renewed cooperation, rooted in the treaty’s original spirit, remains the most viable path to avert a humanitarian and economic crisis.
