Despite a cautious start, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) recorded a robust 1% week-on-week (WoW) gain, with the KSE-100 index closing at 115,536 points, driven by renewed investor confidence. This positive trend, as detailed in a market report by Arif Habib Limited (AHL), reflects optimism midweek, fueled by China’s $1 billion debt rollover and progress in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the first review of Pakistan’s $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme, according to a recent financial analysis.
The week began on a subdued note, with PSX closing nearly flat on Monday, down 42.36 points (0.04%) at 114,356.34, amid uncertainty surrounding the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) monetary policy decision and the outcome of IMF review talks. On Tuesday, the market continued its downward trajectory, declining 179 points (0.16%) to 114,177.66, as investors exercised caution following the SBP’s decision to maintain the policy rate at 12%—contrary to expectations of a 50-basis-point cut—amid inflationary pressures, price volatility, and external account challenges.
Wednesday saw another quiet trading session, with the KSE-100 index dropping 93.12 points (0.08%) to 114,084.54, lacking positive triggers to drive activity. However, Thursday marked a significant rebound, with the index soaring 1,009.70 points (0.89%) to 115,094.24, buoyed by optimism about a favorable IMF review outcome and Moody’s upgrade of the banking sector outlook. This bullish momentum carried into Friday, with the index surging 441.93 points (0.38%) to close at 115,536.17, as investor confidence remained strong, supported by expectations of a positive IMF review and an optimistic earnings outlook.
Sector-wise, the highest positive contributions came from Exploration & Production (234 points), Oil Marketing Companies (194 points), banks (179 points), cement (118 points), and fertilizer (110 points). Conversely, negative contributions were recorded from engineering (46 points), glass & ceramics (45 points), leather & tanneries (37 points), and automobile assemblers (36 points). On a scrip basis, major positive contributors included MARI (303 points), PSO (174 points), HBL (65 points), EFERT (53 points), and DGKC (51 points), while MTL (52 points), SRVI (37 points), PPL (34 points), HMB (28 points), and ISL (28 points) weighed negatively.
Foreign selling persisted, totaling $2.61 million compared to $5.3 million the previous week, with major outflows in Commercial Banks ($2.8 million) and E&P ($1.2 million). Locally, buying was led by Banks/DFIs ($110.9 million) and Other Organisations ($1.7 million). Average trading volumes reached 337 million shares (up 16% WoW), and the average value traded settled at $79 million (up 21.1% WoW), as reported by Topline Securities.
The KSE-100’s 1% weekly gain, reflecting a rise of 1,137 points (+0.99%), was attributed to several factors, including China’s debt rollover, positive IMF negotiations, and February 2025 remittances hitting $3.1 billion—up 39% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month—the highest since June 2024. Additionally, Pakistan’s car sales reached 12,084 units (up 24% YoY but down 29% MoM), further bolstering market sentiment, per a market analysis.
Other significant developments included Engro’s divestment of Eximp Agriproducts for Rs2.4 billion, Haleon Pakistan shipping its first Centrum consignment to Kenya, OGDCL reviving Rajian-11 heavy oil well production to 1,000 barrels per day, K-Electric petitioning for a Rs4.84 tariff cut, and the State Bank of Pakistan approving Silk Bank’s merger with United Bank Limited.
The SBP’s decision to hold the policy rate at 12% initially dampened market sentiment, but midweek momentum shifted positively with anticipation of energy circular debt settlement and the IMF’s agreement to cut the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) tax collection target, as noted in AHL’s report. The average daily traded volume and value during the week stood at 337 million shares (up 16% WoW) and Rs22 billion (up 21% WoW), respectively, signaling increased market activity.
As Pakistan navigates economic recovery in 2025, the PSX’s performance reflects growing investor confidence, supported by international support and domestic policy developments. For the latest updates on PSX trends and economic policies, follow financial news platforms or the Pakistan Stock Exchange for real-time data and insights.
